The opportunity
However, since 2018 (and excluding the short-lived pandemic effects), the Greek economy has experienced strong rebound growth in both GDP and real estate asset prices.
The opportunity
This is driven by:
- Robust government budget balance with ongoing primary fiscal surpluses and a highly favorable fixed long-term sovereign debt repayment profile (primarily to the ESM and other Official Sector lenders) with fixed interest costs.
- Sizeable funding from EU’s RRF facilities which exceed 12% of GDP
- Strong productivity gains particularly in the medium-sized business sector
- Strong and growing tourism sector growth
- Strong FDI in the real estate sector from foreign cash buyers, cash-rich Greek shipowners and lately institutional real estate investors.
- Growth in bank lending to large corporates and foreign institutional investors since 2019 (+37%)
- Greek real estate prices have increased by +65% between 2018-2024 or a CAGR of +8.6% p.a. but still remain below their 2008 real (and in some sectors even nominal) values. Relative to incomes Greek real estate also remains one of the most undervalued markets with significant growth momentum.
These conditions create strong opportunities in the NPL secondary markets and the CRE & Residential real estate sectors, as well as, in the private credit, private equity, special situations and asset-based lending segments.